EUR/USD: the published research is split by time horizon, not by conviction — bearish near-term, more constructive looking out.
The short-term bearish camp argues a hotter US CPI print would reinforce Fed tightening expectations and push EUR/USD back toward 1.1150–1.1160, with some analysts flagging a slip below 1.10 if the dollar index pushes toward 105. A separate cyclical bearish thread points to French fiscal risk and rising short positioning as a drag into 2026, compounded by eurozone energy exposure.
The more constructive side notes the pair has already reclaimed 1.12, with researchers citing consolidation targets at 1.1325–1.1362 absent a CPI shock, a one-month target near 1.13, and a 1.15 call for end-2026 on the view that Fed hikes and French risks are overpriced. A longer-run bullish thesis ties euro appreciation to the US current account deficit and potential Chinese reserve diversification away from the dollar.
The real debate: whether French fiscal stress is a fresh drag or already in the price.