Published research is lining up against the euro. Across this week's notes, the consensus call is for EUR/USD to drift lower against the dollar over the coming quarters, with no meaningful bullish counter-view surfacing.
Three threads run through the analysis. On rates, researchers argue the ECB is near the end of its tightening cycle while the Fed's front-loaded path keeps US yields relatively high — one note sees EUR/USD compressing from around 1.12 toward 1.10 by Q3 2027, with markets already fully priced for a December ECB move, leaving little room for euro upside.
On politics, several published views flag French fiscal and sovereign risk as a reason to stay short the euro, and one house has cut its 12-month EUR/USD assumption to 1.09 (range 1.07–1.12) citing rising political risk premiums ahead of key European elections.
On growth, the dollar's edge is framed as structural, tied to persistent eurozone underperformance versus the US.
The notable part isn't the direction — it's how tightly the published rationales agree.