Published research is lining up on the same side of the euro trade: EUR/USD looks heavy into year-end and through 2026, with only a longer-dated case for a rebound.
The common thread across recent analyst notes is euro-specific fragility. Researchers point to French fiscal and political stress widening peripheral bond spreads and driving flight-to-safety flows into the dollar. One camp flags leveraged funds rebuilding short euro positions with few positive catalysts in sight. Others tie the weakness to French debt concerns, a hawkish ECB, and rising US yields, pinning the pair at the lower end of a 1.10–1.15 range over the next 3–6 months. The published view notes EUR/USD has already fallen roughly 4% since mid-August, with room for further downgrades if instability drags on.
A contrarian longer-horizon thread argues the pair drifts to 1.14 by end-2026 on Fed-driven dollar strength, then recovers toward 1.20 by end-2027 as structural dollar headwinds reassert — though euro-area politics could blunt that rebound.