Published research this week leans heavily bearish on the euro, with near-term EUR/USD downside seen as the base case across most analyst commentary.
The dominant argument: US economic resilience plus a hawkish repricing of Fed expectations is widening the rate gap in the dollar's favor. Several research notes also flag Europe-specific drags — notably the widening spread between French and German government bond yields, driven by budget uncertainty in France. One technically-oriented view highlights that EUR/USD has broken to 52-week lows, with momentum indicators pointing toward 1.10 or even 1.08. A more conditional take warns that a fresh spike in European gas prices could echo 2022's inflation shock and renewed euro weakness, though the current energy backdrop looks less severe.
A contrarian thread of recent research pushes back, but only on a longer horizon — arguing that eventual Fed easing and dollar mean-reversion could lift EUR/USD from around 1.15 at end-2026 toward 1.20 by end-2027. The apparent disagreement is really about timeframe, not direction: tactical bearish, strategic bullish.