Published research is unusually aligned today: the consensus view points to further downside in EUR/USD, with essentially no dissenting voices among the week's commentary.
The common thread across analysts is a euro-specific "perfect storm" rooted in European fiscal and political stress. Multiple research notes flag the sharp widening of French government bond spreads over German Bunds as the dominant catalyst, with the stress bleeding into broader euro confidence. Several argue the ECB is boxed in: any response — whether cooling rate-hike expectations or deploying its bond-buying backstop — is itself euro-negative. One strand of analysis adds that France's fractured politics ahead of the 2027 presidential election is a structural headwind, while another flags energy supply vulnerabilities as a bearish catalyst still to fully play out. On the other side, researchers note resilient US growth, elevated Treasury yields, and sticky Fed rate pricing keep the dollar well supported.
On specific levels, one published view targets a move toward 1.1100/1.1120, with 1.10 possible and bounces expected to stay shallow. Another has cut its euro forecasts materially and warns a potential US diesel export ban could compound Europe's energy pressure. Technical work from a separate team points to 1.07 as a tail scenario, though they caution it may overstate the move.