EUR/USD: the published research consensus is tilting firmly bearish, with the pair already pushing through summer lows.
Researchers point to a few overlapping drivers. One camp emphasizes broad dollar strength, with rising long-end US yields weighing on risk sentiment and dragging the euro down. Another thread highlights European political and fiscal strains — a widening France–Germany yield spread and lingering concerns around France's fiscal path — as extra weight on the euro heading into Friday's US payrolls.
A separate strand focuses on the ECB side: Lagarde has pushed back on near-term rate hike expectations, second-round inflation effects look minimal, and markets have scaled back bets on an October move. Unless euro-zone CPI surprises meaningfully to the upside, these analysts see fading hike odds as a persistent drag on the pair.
There's little real disagreement — only differences in conditionality. Some frame further downside as contingent on hot US data; others on soft European inflation. The direction of travel is shared.