Published research is leaning bearish on the euro in the near term, but the longer-run picture is more constructive than the tape suggests.
Several recent analyses argue the near-term path for EUR/USD is lower. One thread points to dovish signals from ECB President Lagarde — her "measured response" language is read as reducing the odds of an October hike — while the Fed may still move, widening the rate gap against the euro. A separate note observes the euro already printing fresh local lows as rising US yields reinforce broad dollar strength. One published view flags 1.1320–1.1330 as a possible test if US data surprises to the upside.
The cyclical read is more optimistic. Some analysts see EUR/USD recovering by year-end if both the ECB and Fed push hikes to December. A longer-horizon thesis argues improving French and Eurozone fundamentals — competitiveness, industrial recovery, investment appeal — should support a euro rebound into 2027, provided fiscal consolidation holds.
Different horizons, not contradictions.