Published research is split on the euro-dollar, with a modest bearish lean near-term but real disagreement further out.
On the bearish side, one camp of analysts flags 1.1320–1.1330 as the next downside target, arguing that firmer oil prices, upside surprises in US data, and widening eurozone bond spreads — France in particular — keep pressure on the euro. A separate constructive-dollar view points the same direction, though it cautions the move may stall without a strong US payrolls catalyst.
The bullish thread is more nuanced. Some recently-published views note the euro has held up as markets price further ECB tightening alongside the Fed. A contrarian cyclical call sees EUR/USD consolidating near 1.14 before retracing toward 1.16–1.17, citing oversold conditions and nearby technical support.
The genuine tension is horizon-dependent: near-term downside risk into support, then a possible rally later in the year. Traders watching the pair should weigh ECB policy support against widening euro-area spreads and dollar momentum.