EUR/USD spent the week under pressure, with published research broadly pointing to a test of the 1.13–1.14 support zone as US yields and eurozone political risk did the heavy lifting.
Bearish arguments dominated: analysts pointed to a widening US-German yield gap after the latest Fed hike, French fiscal strain visible in the OAT-Bund spread, German political noise, and continued dollar exceptionalism. Several notes flagged 1.1325–1.1340 as the pivotal support, with a break potentially opening 1.10–1.12, and one more aggressive call floated 1.08–1.10 if the dollar breakout extends.
Not everyone agreed on the medium term. A constructive thread argued that hawkish Fed pricing is overdone, projecting EUR/USD back toward 1.16 by year-end and 1.20 into 2027 as US tightening fades. Late in the week, a couple of research voices leaned toward a near-term retracement into 1.16–1.17, suggesting the oversold setup and technical support could allow a bounce once the current squeeze exhausts.