Published research this week leans firmly bearish on the euro, with several strands of analysis pointing to EUR/USD grinding lower toward the 1.08–1.12 zone.
One camp of analysts flags widening French-German bond spreads, French fiscal strain, and a shakier global bond backdrop as the immediate drivers of euro weakness. They watch 1.1340 as the next key support before a potential slide into 1.10–1.12. A separate research thread echoes the macro read, arguing that stubborn Fed rate expectations and firmer US yields keep the euro capped below 1.14. A more technically-oriented note frames EUR/USD as the most vulnerable major cross as the dollar breaks out of a long trading range, setting up a move toward 1.08–1.10 over the coming months.
Not all published views align. One longer-horizon model-based projection sees the euro drifting mildly stronger through late 2026. The gap looks less like real disagreement and more like a difference in timeframe: near-term market stress versus a slow-moving baseline forecast.