Published research is lining up on one side of the euro-dollar trade this week: further downside ahead.
The bearish case rests on three pillars, according to the current research consensus. First, policy divergence — markets are pricing more Fed tightening while the ECB is widely seen as the more likely candidate to pivot dovish, narrowing the rate gap in the dollar's favor. Second, Europe-specific risks that several analyst camps keep flagging: German political instability, widening France-Germany sovereign spreads, and an energy bill that structurally weighs on the euro. Third, a technical breakdown — one strand of research notes EUR/USD has cracked key trendline support and is drifting toward the 1.12–1.1325 zone, with post-FOMC yield spreads reinforcing the move.
Recently published views also argue that even upside surprises in Eurozone PMIs have failed to lift the pair, and that options positioning has already shifted bearish. A contrarian angle is notably absent.