Published research is split on EUR/USD — but the split is mostly about time horizon.
Near-term, analysts broadly lean bearish on the euro. Recent research points to widening US-EU rate differentials, skepticism that ECB hawkish talk will turn into actual hikes, and mounting fiscal and political strain in Europe — France's deteriorating outlook and possible sovereign rating reviews get repeated mentions. One published view flags a possible retest of the 1.1320–1.1330 June lows; another expects the pair to grind toward the lower end of its recent range.
Looking further out, the research consensus fractures. One camp argues that overly hawkish rate pricing will unwind for both the ECB and the Fed, lifting EUR/USD toward 1.160 by year-end. A contrarian thread pushes back: as the Fed stays equally responsive to inflation, the euro loses its earlier edge, and the dollar stays on top over the coming year. Europe's fiscal fragility is cited as reinforcing that dollar bias.
Bottom line from the published work: near-term euro weakness is largely agreed; the year-ahead call is genuinely contested.