EUR/USD: the split isn't bull vs bear — it's short-term vs long-term.
Near-term, several strands of published research see the euro under pressure. The argument: US–German yield spreads are widening as the Fed stays tighter than the ECB, and Europe is carrying extra baggage — French fiscal strains and German political turbulence after the CDU's setback and the AfD's rise. One cyclical read frames upcoming Fed moves as a temporary offset to the dollar's deeper structural weakness.
Look further out and the tone flips. A strand of medium-term research projects EUR/USD near 1.14 by end-2026 and 1.20 by end-2027, on the view that Fed tightening eventually fades and the dollar resumes a structural decline. Others in the published consensus turn constructive on the euro over that horizon, expecting US outperformance to cool and European conditions to steady.
The takeaway from the research: what looks like disagreement is really a timing split. Same yield-spread story — pressure now, relief later.