Published research this week is leaning bearish on the euro against the dollar, with most analysis pointing to further downside and only a narrow contrarian thread arguing for a rebound — and even that one only over a multi-year horizon.
The shared logic across the bearish camp: the Fed's hawkish hike and guidance toward more tightening have widened the US–Eurozone rate gap, dragging fair value on the pair lower. One recent note pegs short-term fair value at 1.150 and flags that technical support doesn't kick in until roughly 1.132–1.135, with risks skewed lower if front-end rates, oil, or equities turn. Others in the same camp point to fresh cycle lows and the post-FOMC sell-off as confirmation.
The lone bullish voice isn't really a disagreement — it's a horizon mismatch. That strategic view targets the second half of 2027, when US fiscal strains and softer energy prices could reassert themselves. A separate long-run argument holds the euro will lose more purchasing power than the dollar over the coming decade on weaker European fundamentals.
Near-term weakness, possible reversal later — the views are compatible.