Published research on EUR/USD is split by time horizon: bearish now, more constructive into year-end, and openly divided on the long run.
On the near-term bearish case, several recently-published notes point to Fed hawkishness, the risk of another rate hike, firmer energy prices, and a fresh downside technical break — with tactical targets cited around 1.1400 and 1.1325 as the next support zones.
The cyclical camp is more optimistic. One published year-end target sits near 1.16, resting on dovish repricing in both euro and dollar money markets, softer oil, and improving global risk appetite. A separate strategic view projects appreciation toward 1.21 by late 2027, citing eurozone services and manufacturing resilience alongside a gradually weaker dollar.
A contrarian strategic thread pushes the other way, arguing Europe will eventually accept a "Japanese medicine" path — a decade-long structural devaluation of the euro to absorb demographic and fiscal strains.
The real disagreement isn't tactical noise; it's whether Europe stabilizes or slowly devalues its way through the next decade.