Published research this week leans bearish on the euro against the dollar in the near term, with most analysts expecting a move toward and below 1.150 before any recovery takes hold.
The driver is straightforward: the Fed's hawkish posture, upgraded US growth outlook, and the prospect of further tightening are pulling capital toward the dollar. Several research notes also flag elevated energy prices as a double blow — worsening Europe's trade position while reinforcing dollar demand. One analysis directly ties the euro's recent half-percent slide to widening US-Europe rate differentials.
Horizon changes the story, though. Tactically, one research view sees EUR/USD having broken 1.150 with the next real support at 1.1330–1.1360. A more cyclical read flips bullish — targeting 1.150 by end-September and 1.160 by year-end — but only if Gulf tensions cool and oil drops sharply. A longer-dated strategic call argues for a multi-year climb from 1.16 to 1.22 by mid-2028, as euro-area growth surprises and the dollar eventually softens.
Same direction near-term, real divergence over longer horizons.