EUR/USD outlook is genuinely split right now, with no clean consensus in published research.
On the bearish side, one camp of analysts argues a hawkish Fed move could drive the pair down toward 1.150, and a related view holds that the dollar's widening yield advantage will keep pressuring the euro lower in the near term.
The contrarian case is that the euro has already climbed back to around 1.16, supported by ECB rate-hike expectations, relatively resilient euro-area growth, and a softer dollar tied to US Treasury buybacks and coordinated FX intervention. A separate cyclical thread frames the move as a slow normalization from record euro undervaluation — constructive, but not the market's main story right now.
The split is partly about time horizon: the bearish calls are explicitly tied to a hawkish Fed event, while the bullish views play out over months and lean on policy divergence and structural undervaluation. Even so, the underlying narratives — Fed-driven dollar strength versus ECB-driven euro recovery — genuinely diverge.