EUR/USD: research is split by time horizon, not direction — near-term dollar strength, then euro recovery.
On the bearish side, several recently published analyses see EUR/USD breaking below 1.16 toward 1.15, pointing to Fed hawkishness, strong US data, and only a fleeting drag from foreign central bank tightening. A separate technical read argues a break of 1.1570 support opens the door to 1.1325 amid rising yields, a firmer dollar, and risk-off pressure from higher energy prices. One cyclical view extends the bearish case to 1.14 by end-2026.
The constructive camp highlights the euro's recovery toward 1.16 after coordinated US–Japan intervention and shifting yield spreads. Longer-horizon research projects a grind from 1.16 to 1.17 by year-end and 1.21–1.22 by mid-2028, anchored on a softening US economy and firmer European growth. A parallel strategic view sees 1.20 by end-2027 as the dollar's structural downtrend reasserts.
The takeaway from the published research: dollar strength first, euro recovery later — a sequenced call, not a directional standoff.