Published research this week leans bearish on the euro against the dollar.
One camp of analysts is calling for EUR/USD to drift toward 1.15 by end-September, pointing to a worsening trade backdrop for the euro zone and expecting a dovish tone from the ECB even if it hikes — while a Fed hike would give the dollar relative support.
A separate strand of recently-published research uses the euro itself as a funding currency, borrowing in euros to buy energy-resilient Asian currencies. The logic: Europe's exposure to high energy prices makes the euro structurally weaker in that pair trade.
The same bearish research does flag one conditional upside path — if EUR/USD breaks above 1.1640/45 resistance, the next target would be 1.1675/80. But this is framed as a scenario against their core view, not a competing forecast.
Bottom line from the published consensus: the tactical bias is lower, with a narrow technical escape hatch higher only if key resistance gives way.