Published research this week leans bearish on the euro in the near term, but the pessimism has clear limits.
The consensus in recently published notes points to a tactical dip in EUR/USD toward 1.150, followed by a cyclical recovery to around 1.160 by year-end. Analysts frame these as two legs of the same trade, not a contradiction.
The bearish case rests on two pillars: expectations that the Fed pressures the dollar side of the pair, and the risk that the ECB strikes a dovish tone at its next meeting, unwinding some of the hawkish support the euro has built up. Researchers also flag that eurozone commodity terms of trade have deteriorated to their worst level since March, adding another headwind.
A far more extreme view circulating in one contrarian thread of research sketches a 30% EUR/USD collapse — but only as a tail scenario tied to an Italian and Greek exit from the eurozone triggering capital flight. It is explicitly a what-if, not a base case.