EUR/USD: published research is split on the euro, with the ECB meeting shaping up as the key battleground.
The shared setup across recent research is the European Central Bank's policy path against a backdrop of rising energy prices. One camp of analysts argues that hawkish repricing of ECB expectations — driven by higher energy costs and a resilient euro-zone economy — is a tailwind for the euro, noting that European yields look more sensitive to the energy shock than US yields do.
A contrarian thread of recent research pushes back. It suggests the market has set the hawkish bar for the ECB too high, and that anything short of an aggressive signal would drag euro rates lower, pulling EUR/USD toward a retest of 1.160 in the near term and 1.150 over roughly a month.
Even within the bullish camp, some published views concede rate markets are nearly fully priced for hikes, leaving little room for upside surprise. So the real disagreement isn't really direction — it's how the ECB's tone lands.