Published research this week leans firmly bearish on EUR/USD in the near term, with the only bullish exception coming from a longer-horizon strategic call.
The dominant thread across recent analyst notes is a more hawkish Fed. Commentary from Fed Chair Warsh has pushed September hike odds above 65%, lifting the dollar and pressuring the euro. One camp of researchers targets a move toward 1.15 by month-end, pointing to higher energy prices squeezing the euro and arguing that the roughly 80bps of additional ECB tightening priced by next summer is far too aggressive — a mispricing they say erodes euro support. Others tie dollar strength directly to rising US rate expectations and oil-driven inflation. A separate tactical read notes FX options markets have shifted to a clear downside preference on EUR/USD, contingent on the Fed staying hawkish.
The one bullish voice is horizon-split rather than contrarian: tactically bearish into September, but strategically constructive with a 1.18 target by end-2026, citing US fiscal risks, an eventual Fed pause, and longer-term dollar softness.