Published research this week leans bearish on EUR/USD, with analysts arguing the pair can't hold 1.1600 and is set to retest 1.1500 in the first half of September.
The core case, according to one thread of recent research: markets are growing more confident the Fed hikes in September, which would widen the rate gap in the dollar's favor. Euro-specific pressures are stacking up too — elevated natural gas prices are hurting the eurozone's terms of trade, and the geopolitical backdrop keeps deteriorating. Researchers acknowledge recent upside surprises in eurozone growth data offered brief support, but argue that tailwind fades fast against the current commodity and geopolitical mix.
A separate published view on the broader dollar index reinforces the same conclusion: September is historically a seasonally strong month for the greenback, and front-end rate support is still intact — absent any fresh intervention in the Treasury market.