EUR/USD is caught between a bearish short-term tape and a more constructive medium-term story, with no clean consensus in this week's published research.
On the bearish side, some analysts point to renewed dollar strength after a hawkish Fed tone pushed the pair below 1.16, with further downside possible if Eurozone August inflation comes in soft. A separate contrarian thread flags a structural tail risk: any move by a Eurozone government toward monetising or cancelling debt would seriously undermine the euro.
The strategic camp is more upbeat. One set of published forecasts sees EUR/USD reaching 1.16 by late 2026 and 1.20–1.21 by 2027–2028, built on European recovery and a gradual dollar decline — though partly conditional on Middle East tensions easing. A cyclical bullish view argues the ECB will stay more hawkish than the Fed near term, given sticky energy-driven inflation in Europe and potential Treasury buyback pressure on the dollar.
The bottom line from the research consensus: tactical downside, strategic upside — mostly a horizon disagreement, not a fundamental one.