Published research this week leans bullish on EUR/USD in the near term, with a contrarian cyclical bear standing out.
Researchers argue the euro can grind higher on continued upside surprises in eurozone data and constructive ECB commentary — notably Isabel Schnabel's suggestion that growth risks may skew to the upside. On this view, EUR/USD holds 1.1650/60 support and pushes toward 1.1700/1710, conditional on a benign US core PCE print.
A separate strand of analysis frames the bullish case entirely from the dollar side: US fiscal deficit worries, elevated risk premia in Treasuries, and an underwhelming response to the Treasury's buyback programme are all seen sustaining EUR/USD upside — no data caveats attached.
The contrarian thread argues the opposite on a longer horizon: an environment that rewards higher-yielding currencies over lower-yielding ones is structurally unfriendly to the euro, pointing to weakness into year-end.
So the near-term and multi-month calls aren't really fighting — they're operating on different clocks and frameworks.