Published research this week leans bearish on the euro, arguing EUR/USD has room to fall in the weeks ahead.
The core case, according to analysts publishing on the pair, is a deteriorating European macro backdrop. One recent view highlights rising inflation risk tied to energy supply uncertainty, alongside critically low natural gas storage levels that threaten to weigh on growth. Together, these are seen as undermining the fundamental case for the euro.
Even if the ECB continues raising rates, the research consensus in this camp argues that upside inflation pressure combined with logistical disruptions to LNG shipments effectively points to stagflation-like conditions in Europe — slowing growth alongside sticky prices. The takeaway from these published views: rate hikes alone may not defend the euro if the underlying economy keeps eroding, leaving scope for further downside in EUR/USD.