Published research this week leans toward euro strength against the dollar, though no direct EUR/USD price target is on the table.
The core argument from one strand of recent analysis: the dollar's pullback reflects a genuine shift in relative growth expectations. Eurozone data has been surprising to the upside while US data has disappointed, prompting markets to re-rate what the Fed is likely to do next.
A parallel thread of research reinforces this view but frames it differently — anchoring dollar weakness to the run-up into the Jackson Hole gathering, and noting that unresolved US-China and US-Canada trade tensions keep the risk balance tilted against the dollar. Bond markets are offering some support, but not enough to flip the story.
Analysts don't see an obvious near-term catalyst to reverse the trend. The two camps aren't really in conflict: one is data-driven, the other is event- and trade-conditional. They're describing the same theme from different angles.