Published research is lining up behind the euro, with multiple independent analyses this week pointing to further EUR/USD upside on a softer dollar and shifting positioning.
One strand of recent research flags that 1-month EUR/USD risk reversals have flipped in favor of euro calls for the first time since late February — a sign, analysts argue, that confidence in the dollar is fading amid US fiscal worries and the lack of a credible plan to rein in deficits.
A separate thread of published work focuses on positioning: asset managers and leveraged funds are quietly accumulating euro contracts, yet speculators overall remain underweight the currency. Researchers argue that setup leaves room for more euro strength as positions catch up.
Fundamentals are cited as reinforcing the call. Some analysts point to the ongoing Eurozone recovery — firmer German IFO and PMI readings — and hold forecasts of 1.17 by end-September and 1.18 by year-end.
Two distinct lenses — a dollar-debasement view and a positioning-plus-fundamentals view — arriving at the same conclusion.