Published research this week leans firmly bullish on the euro against the dollar, with the clearest pair-level calls pointing higher on both tactical and multi-month horizons.
The core argument from researchers making that case: softening US inflation is lowering the odds of further Fed hikes, and weaker front-end US rates are the main fuel for a higher EUR/USD. One published path lays out a stepped move — 1.16 in the coming weeks, 1.17 by autumn, and 1.18 by year-end. The flagged risk is a flare-up in Gulf tensions, which analysts argue could delay the move but not reverse the direction.
A partial counterpoint comes from a separate strand of recent research suggesting the dollar could firm modestly against low-yielding currencies including the euro — though that view is framed as a broader carry-trade dynamic rather than a specific EUR/USD forecast.
Net-net: the published consensus we're tracking today is euro-up, dollar-down, with 1.18 as the most concrete year-end marker on the table.