Published research this week leans bullish on the euro against the dollar, across both tactical and strategic horizons.
Multiple strands of recent analysis argue EUR/USD should grind higher over a multi-year view, driven by a softer dollar as the Fed's rate advantage narrows and European fundamentals stabilise. On a shorter horizon, one research thread estimates the pair is currently undervalued relative to short-term fair value near 1.160–1.165 (based on two-year swap spreads), expects technical support at 1.1500 to hold, and carries a moderately bullish bias into the coming weeks — while flagging that a sustained break above 1.160 would need dovish surprises from the Fed.
The one dissenting view in the published research argues EUR/USD could fall well below 1.13 — but explicitly only if markets reprice additional Fed hikes, a scenario the same analysis concedes has limited room (roughly 35–40bps). Absent that trigger, no firm bearish base case is on the table.
So the apparent split is really about scenarios and time horizons, not a genuine directional conflict.