Research this week broadly leans toward a stronger euro against the dollar, though on different timeframes.
On the strategic view, one published forecast sees EUR/USD grinding higher from around 1.16 in Q3 2026 to roughly 1.23 by late 2027, driven by narrowing rate differentials and a broader rethink of dollar strength.
A shorter-horizon take from separate analysts focuses on the next US inflation print: a soft July CPI would effectively kill the odds of a September Fed hike and could push EUR/USD toward the prior week's high near 1.1580.
The camps aren't really at odds — they're just working on different clocks. The tactical view is explicitly conditional on softer CPI, and the multi-quarter path easily accommodates near-term chop around event risk.
One caveat flagged in recent research: stubbornly high European natural gas prices tied to Gulf tensions are capping near-term upside, and thin summer liquidity limits how far any rally can run before it stalls.