Published research this week leans bullish on the euro against the dollar, with one forecast now targeting a climb from 1.12 in Q3 2026 to 1.16 by Q2 2027.
The reasoning laid out by analysts follows a sequenced story. First, a short-lived bout of dollar strength tied to energy market stress. Then, as energy prices normalize, the euro takes over — supported by the ECB holding rates relatively higher for longer and by European growth surprising to the upside.
A separate strand of recent research on the yen-euro cross reinforces the euro-positive tone from a different angle: researchers argue that the impact of Japanese FX intervention is fading while structural yen weakness sticks around. That view is about yen dynamics rather than a direct EUR/USD call, but it fits the broader picture of a firmer euro.
Worth noting: this is a minority-voiced, single-direction read in today's flow, not a consensus. The bullish euro case rests heavily on energy normalizing and Europe outperforming expectations — two assumptions that could easily break.