Published research this week is uniformly bullish on the euro against the dollar — the disagreement is only about timeframe, not direction.
The near-term case, laid out in recent analyst notes, is that European institutional investors remain underhedged on their US asset exposure. If they move to raise dollar hedge ratios, it could force a sharp dollar sell-off and pull EUR/USD sharply higher. One published cyclical target puts the pair at 1.18 by year-end.
Tactically, researchers argue a soft US July CPI print would open the door to a breakout above 1.160, with the next resistance near 1.1630 (the 200-day moving average). A widely-expected September ECB move is seen as added support for the euro.
Zooming out, the structural view from official-sector research points to Europe's savings and investment union, a digital euro, and centralised supervision as forces that could channel European savings into euro assets and strengthen the euro's reserve role over years, not weeks.
Three horizons, one direction.