EUR/USD: research leaned bullish this week, with dollar softness the dominant theme.
Early in the week, analysts flagged US inflation undershooting expectations and a fading oil-shock impulse as reasons to expect dollar weakness, with a modest 12-month upside bias for the pair and choppy 1.14–1.15 trade in the near term. One short-term fair-value read pushed back, arguing EUR/USD looked 0.5–1% rich and could drift back below 1.150 unless US payrolls surprised to the upside.
By midweek, the tone turned more constructive. Researchers argued the euro, as a pro-growth currency, should benefit from the global equity rally, with a break of 1.1550/60 opening 1.1615/20. Others said a Fed on hold through year-end — conditional on soft July and August CPI prints — would drive a benign dollar decline into risk-positive markets.
Late-week published targets clustered around 1.16 in a month and 1.18 by year-end, with multi-year forecasts pointing to a similar 1.16–1.18 range into 2027, citing narrowing rate differentials.