Published research is lining up behind a stronger euro.
The consensus in recent third-party analysis points to EUR/USD climbing into the 1.16–1.18 range over the cyclical horizon. Researchers argue the setup rests on a dovish Fed — with no further rate hikes expected this year — and fair-value work showing short-term rate differentials as the dominant driver of the pair.
One camp of analysts is targeting 1.16 within a month and 1.18 by year-end, while flagging range-bound trading into the next US CPI print and tactical volatility around upcoming US data. A separate set of published quarterly forecasts lands in the same zone, projecting a grind higher from roughly 1.05 in early 2025 to 1.16–1.18 by late 2026, citing narrowing rate differentials and improving eurozone fundamentals as the tailwinds.
The notable tell: two independent forecast tracks converge on the same 1.16–1.18 destination, which the published research consensus reads as a higher-conviction call than usual.