EUR/USD calls are genuinely split right now, and it's worth understanding why before assuming a direction.
One camp of analysts sees near-term euro weakness, with EUR/USD already slipping below 1.05 as geopolitical stress pushes safe-haven flows into the dollar and European economic data softens. A separate strand of published research takes the opposite view, arguing for a mild grind higher toward 1.16 in a month and 1.18 over six months — a call that hinges on softer US inflation in July and August, a Fed that stays on hold, and a risk-positive backdrop that lets the dollar drift lower. That thesis also assumes the ECB hikes in September before cutting next summer.
A longer-dated thread of recent research is modestly constructive on the euro out to 2030, but only if Europe expands the currency's international role and holds together politically — a highly conditional bet, not a near-term signal.
The real disagreement: does Fed dovishness dominate, or does European fragility? Same horizon, opposite conclusions.