Published research this week leans bullish on the euro versus the dollar, with no opposing calls surfacing on the pair.
The core argument from one recently-published cyclical view: US inflation is undershooting expectations, which strips out the oil-driven inflation premium and reinforces a structural bearish setup for the dollar. Softer US CPI, the reasoning goes, reduces pressure on the Fed to keep tightening. That narrows the interest-rate advantage supporting the dollar and opens room for the euro to appreciate on a medium-term horizon.
It's worth flagging this is a thin consensus — a single directional call rather than a chorus — and the euro upside is implied by the broader dollar-weakness thesis rather than staked out as a hard price target. But the logic is straightforward: if US disinflation holds, the dollar's rate support fades, and EUR/USD drifts higher.
One camp of analysts, one direction. Worth watching whether other published views converge or push back in the days ahead.