EUR/USD flipped from defensive to constructive as the week progressed, with published research increasingly pointing to a softer dollar path.
Early in the week, analysts flagged downside risks around 1.1360, citing precautionary dollar buying into the FOMC, elevated European gas prices, and Middle East headline risk. One strategic note stood out against that caution, targeting 1.16 by Q4 2026 and 1.20 by end-2027 on dollar diversification themes.
After the Fed's hold, the published consensus shifted more clearly bullish. Multiple research desks pointed to lower short-term US yields, stronger-than-expected euro area Q2 GDP and inflation, and stretched long-dollar positioning as reasons the pair could grind higher. Tactical views clustered around a 1.14–1.15 range, with 1.1482 flagged as near-term resistance and 1.18 cited as a stretch target if 1.15 holds as support. A medium-term house call from one desk pinned Q3 near 1.17.
A contrarian thread still argued the euro's fair value sits below spot, with any relief seen as temporary.