EUR/USD: the bearish and bullish calls floating around this week aren't actually in conflict — they're just on different clocks.
One strand of published research argues the pair is modestly overvalued, roughly 0.5–1% rich on short-term fair value models, and sees it slipping back below 1.150 as the dollar steadies. A push toward 1.140 would likely need a notably strong US jobs print.
A separate camp of analysts takes the opposite side over a 12-month horizon, expecting markets to keep pricing out Fed rate hikes and letting the euro drift gradually higher. That view flags safe-haven dollar demand tied to the Iran conflict as a drag on the pace, keeping the pair choppy in a 1.14–1.15 range for now.
The consensus read once you line them up: this isn't a real directional fight. The tactical bearish call doesn't rule out a longer-term recovery, and the structural bullish call already concedes near-term turbulence. Same trade, different timeframes.