Euro-dollar looks to have found a floor, according to research published this week, with a tactical path back toward 1.14–1.15 now the base case.
One camp of analysts argues the pair has bottomed and can grind back into the 1.1400–1.1450 zone in the near term, provided the Fed holds rates as expected and traders unwind precautionary long-dollar bets. A more sustained push above 1.15 is a bigger ask: the published view is that it requires the Fed to turn materially more dovish — either through softer US data or clearer signalling — alongside calmer risk appetite.
Researchers flag two live headwinds capping gains for now: tech-sector volatility and Middle East tensions. The framing across these calls is explicitly conditional. None of them assume Fed easing has already been delivered; they treat the tactical bounce as a stepping stone toward a larger structural recovery rather than a standalone bullish call.
Watch the Fed tone and US data. Without a dovish shift, 1.15 stays a ceiling, not a floor.