Published research this week is leaning bearish on EUR/USD, with analysts flagging a potential break of the 1.1360 support toward 1.1325.
The core argument from the current research consensus: the pair's direction is being dictated almost entirely by the Fed, not by anything happening in Europe. Even genuinely constructive euro-side developments — lower energy prices, for instance — are being brushed aside by markets fixated on U.S. policy risk into the next FOMC meeting.
Strategists point to the risk of a hawkish surprise from the Fed, or dissenting votes in favor of a hike, as the reason dollar demand is staying firm. That mechanically pressures the euro leg of the pair lower, regardless of what's happening on the European side.
Notably, there is no meaningful contrarian view in the published research right now making a bullish case for EUR/USD over this horizon — the bearish framing is essentially uncontested.