Published research this week lines up unusually cleanly on one call: the euro is set to gain further ground against the dollar. Every research desk covering the pair leans bullish — the debate is only about timing and magnitude.
The shared logic across analysts is the post-FOMC dollar retreat. The Fed's decision to hold rates cooled hike expectations, forced crowded long-dollar positions to unwind, and pulled short-term US yields lower — all supportive for EUR/USD. One strand of research emphasizes a policy-divergence angle, noting that softer Fed expectations have coincided with firmer expectations for ECB hikes, magnifying euro strength. Another thread points to an upside surprise in European Q2 GDP as an independent catalyst that could extend the move if data momentum holds.
On specifics, one house call targets EUR/USD near 1.17 by the end of Q3, conditional on the Fed skipping a September hike. Technical work flags 1.1482 as the near-term resistance level to watch. A more cautious camp warns the upside could be capped if long-term US yields re-accelerate or oil risks flare up.