Published research on EUR/USD is split — but mostly by time horizon, not by direction.
On the near-term side, one camp of analysts sees downside risk into this week's FOMC decision. Their argument: precautionary dollar buying ahead of the Fed, the risk of fresh Middle East strikes lifting oil, elevated European gas prices weighing on the euro's terms of trade, and a widening US-Europe growth gap all stack against the pair.
A separate strand of recently-published research takes the other side on a longer horizon, arguing the dollar is in a slow structural downtrend driven by persistent price pressures and gradual global diversification away from USD. That view targets EUR/USD at 1.16 by late 2026 and 1.20 by late 2027, conditional on geopolitics gradually normalizing.
The takeaway from the published consensus: this looks less like a genuine disagreement and more like two scenarios stacked on different clocks — event-driven weakness now, structural strength later.