Published research is lining up bearish on EUR/USD in the near term, with multiple recent notes pointing the same direction.
One recent analysis targets a drift toward 1.1380 ahead of the next central bank meeting, citing interest rate gaps, policy expectations, and energy costs as headwinds for the euro. The same note flags a US-Iran ceasefire as the main scenario that could flip the setup.
A separate strand of research reinforces the thesis from the energy angle: because the euro area imports most of its energy, elevated prices hit it harder than peers. That view frames inflation expectations and relative growth as the dominant drivers pressuring the pair.
What makes this notable is the convergence. Two independent lines of published analysis land on the same core mechanism — energy costs plus policy divergence — rather than just arriving at the same number by coincidence. For now, the consensus in the research we tracked leans lower on the euro, with a geopolitical de-escalation as the key risk to that call.