Published research is lining up bearishly on the euro, with analysts flagging downside risk toward the 1.133–1.140 support zone in the near term.
Two reinforcing forces are cited. First, one camp of researchers argues markets have already priced in substantial ECB easing, leaving little room for a hawkish surprise to rescue the euro. Second, further gains in oil prices — driven by Gulf geopolitical tensions — are expected to weigh on the eurozone's terms of trade and on broader risk sentiment.
Even a hawkish-leaning ECB posture is judged insufficient to hold EUR/USD above 1.140, according to the published view, given fading support from rate differentials and persistent energy-related headwinds. The tactical read making the rounds this week targets a retest of 1.140 first, with 1.1330 flagged as the next key support if that level breaks.
Worth watching: how much of the ECB easing path is already in the price, and whether oil stays bid.