Published research this week is leaning bearish on EUR/USD, with multiple analyst camps pointing to near-term downside in the euro.
One line of research flags Gulf region geopolitical risks and complacency in currency markets as the immediate trigger, pointing to 1.1380 as a near-term target. A separate macro view argues the pair is drifting toward the bottom of its recent 1.1400–1.1800 range, with hawkish repricing of Fed rate expectations and a worsening energy shock leaving the euro vulnerable — even though markets are also pricing ECB rate hikes.
A more technically framed argument notes that speculative positioning is already heavily short the euro, and warns that a sustained break below 1.14 would open the door to 1.12–1.11, consistent with a broader dollar breakout thesis.
The three views differ mainly in horizon and framing rather than direction: one is very short-dated, one leans on macro fundamentals, and one waits for a clean technical break. Taken together, the published consensus tilts toward euro weakness.