EUR/USD looks set to grind higher in the near term, according to the current published research consensus, with a softer US inflation backdrop doing most of the work.
Researchers broadly point to the post-CPI repricing as the main catalyst: cooler-than-expected US inflation has trimmed how many additional Fed hikes traders are pricing in, taking some air out of the dollar and lifting the euro in the process.
One thread of recent analysis adds a rate-differential angle. With the ECB holding a wait-and-see stance and keeping the door open to further tightening, the gap versus a Fed that looks closer to done is widening — which some analysts argue gives the euro a more structural tailwind for as long as that divergence lasts.
The common thread across these views: the near-term path of least resistance for EUR/USD is up, but the story hinges on US inflation continuing to cool and the ECB not blinking first.