EUR/USD: a bearish first half of the week gave way to a more constructive tone after soft US payrolls, with published research now leaning toward a late-2026 recovery.
Early in the week, most analysts leaned bearish. Softer eurozone CPI, a more dovish ECB tilt from President Lagarde, and resilient US data were cited as drivers, with near-term targets clustered around 1.1300–1.1400. Several notes flagged US growth exceptionalism, fading "anti-dollar" flows, and repricing of Fed hikes as headwinds for the euro.
The published consensus shifted more constructive later in the week, after a weaker US payrolls print. Multiple research pieces argued the dollar should soften as Fed hike expectations recede, while a still relatively hawkish ECB supports the euro. Year-end and 2027 targets in that camp ranged from 1.15 up to 1.18, with some strategic views stretching toward 1.20–1.23 over a longer horizon.
Net-net: tactical downside risks into summer, but a growing body of research sees rate-differential math turning back in the euro's favor.