Published research is leaning heavily bullish on the euro against the dollar — across short, medium, and long horizons — with one notable dissent.
The core bull case, according to the recent research consensus, rests on two pillars: a softer dollar and a relatively firmer ECB. Several analysts point to weaker US payrolls as trimming Fed rate-hike odds and pulling away a key support for the greenback. One camp argues the pair reacts unusually strongly to shifts in Fed pricing and could push back above 1.16 by late summer.
Looking further out, researchers anchor their bullish view on narrowing US–EU rate gaps as the Fed eventually eases while the ECB stays comparatively tight. Published targets include 1.18 by end-2026 and 1.23 by end-2027, with a similar 1.17–1.18 range cited elsewhere. ECB President Lagarde's hawkish lean, flagged in recent notes, is seen as reinforcing the euro's carry edge.
The contrarian view: one research thread argues the ECB will actually cut before the Fed, flipping the divergence story and pressuring the euro lower.