EUR/USD spent the week pinned near the 1.15 area, and the published research split sharply on what comes next.
Early in the week, the bearish case dominated: analysts pointed to a hawkish Fed pivot, sticky US inflation, resilient US labor data, and rising dollar momentum. Several notes flagged 1.14–1.15 as the likely summer range, with downside risk toward 1.13 — or even 1.10–1.12 in a more aggressive Fed tightening scenario — if energy disruptions or Middle East risks resurface.
By the latter half of the week, the consensus tilted notably more constructive on the euro. Multiple research desks argued the pair should grind toward 1.18–1.20 by year-end, with longer-dated calls reaching 1.22–1.25 into 2027. The rationale: policy divergence between a cautious ECB (with Chief Economist Philip Lane flagging a higher neutral rate) and a Fed expected to ease next year, plus structural US fiscal and current-account concerns weighing on the dollar medium-term.
Near-term bearish, medium-term bullish — that was the week's tension.